Housing Shortage: Some Current Issues In Developing Countries

Penulis: Taufan Pamungkas Kurnianto, Nova Mardianti, Riza Azmi, and Agung Hidayat Purwanto (Tahun 2015)

This paper reviews the literature on the housing shortage in developing countries which is more prevalent than in developed countries. Housing shortage can be defined quantitatively or qualitatively. Quantitative approach stresses on the disequilibrium between supply and demand and another calculation which is visible and predictable, yet, qualitative approach puts more attention to the quality of housing whether it is an appropriate place as the shelter. The causes of housing shortage may come from both the demand side and the supply side. The supply side problems are: macroeconomics instability including rise in cost of construction materials, limited construction financing, market failure to provide housing for low income population, and government failure. The demand side problems are: mortgage financing, demographic growth, urbanization, limited secondary market and insufficient government program for low-income people. Linking theoretical framework and empirical data, filtering and hedonic housing model can be used to explain the housing shortage in which housing shortage occurs because there are some deviations in empirical data compared to the assumptions of those two models. Finally, policy implications are provided which indicate that many tasks needed to be taken by government and all stakeholders to address housing shortage.

Telah dipresentasikan dalam forum ilmiah "The 5th Indonesian Regional Science Association (IRSA) International Institute" pada tanggal 3-4 Agustus 2015 di Bali

The Impact Of The 2015 Free Visa Policy On Tourism Development In Indonesia

Penulis: Anda Nugroho, Rita Helbra Tenrini, and Hidayat Amir, Researcher, Fiscal Policy Office of Ministry of Finance, Indonesia (Tahun 2015)

Tourism is an important economic activity in Indonesia. Over the past years, tourism has become a fundamental contributor to the economic growth by generating millions of jobs and billions of dollars foreign exchange. Tourism contributes about 3.99 percent of the 2013 Indonesian GDP. In the same year, it has created more than 3 million jobs or equal to 2.7 percent of total employment. It also generates more than 10 billion USD inflow of foreign exchange to Indonesia. In order to achieve high growth in the tourism, the government has issued a series of policy, one of them is the policy of free visa for visitors from 30 countries, including China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of free visa policy to the Indonesian economy and government’s tax revenue. As a tool of analysis, this study modified the existing Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of INDOFISCAL that already has a range of fiscal features. The model is modified to improve the tourism sector aggregation in the model. It also modified to incorporate recursive dynamic feature. 

Overall, the free visa policy brings positive effects to the economy. In the response to the free visa policy in the scenario1, scenario 2, and scenario 3 the real GDP increases by 0.005 %, 0.017%, and 0.029 percent respectively. On the government side, this policy will lead to the increase in the indirect tax revenue. Scenario1, scenario 2, and scenario 3 has brought additional indirect tax revenue of USD 20.1 million, USD 71.5 million, USD 124.4 million respectively. The policy also creates more job in the tourism related sector and reduce poverty.

Keywords: Indonesia, tourism, free visa, Dynamic CGE

Analysis on Indonesian International Tourism Strategy

Penulis: Mahpud Sujai, Center for Climate Finance and Multilateral Policy, Fiscal Policy Agency (Tahun 2015)

Tourism is important to Indonesia’s economy. In recent years, the contribution of tourism sector to the national economy is increasing significantly. In 2012, tourism sector contributed almost 17 per cent of the total Indonesian exports of goods and services, rose from 10% in 2005. The direct contribution of tourism to GDP was just over 3.8 percent in 2012 or 9 percent of GDP if including the multiplier effect of GDP. Despite the strong growth of Indonesian tourism sector, when compared with other competitor countries in the ASEAN region, Indonesia is still far behind. The number of tourist arrivals to ASEAN reached 92.7 million in 2013. However, tourist who visited Indonesia was only about 8 million tourists or less than 10 percent of the total foreign tourist visiting ASEAN countries. During the period 2005-2012, the ASEAN tourism is able to grow on average 8.3% per year, well above the average global growth of only 3.6%. However, Indonesia's tourism grew only 5.8 percent per year far below the average growth of ASEAN although still above average global growth.Given the potential of Indonesia's tourism sector in the future, it would require variety of strategies to attract more tourists and develop Indonesia’s tourism. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to analyze various strategies undertaken by the government in attracting more tourists to Indonesia. The methodology used is descriptive analysis through benchmarking analysis with competitor countries in the ASEAN region and SWOT analysis to prepare a proper strategy for the development of the tourism sector in Indonesia. This paper is expected to contribute in formulating strategies by stakeholders especially government in developing the tourism sector in Indonesia.

Keywords: Tourism Development, Strategy, SWOT Analysis


KONTAK: Jl. Dr. Wahidin No. 1 Gd. R. M. Notohamiprodjo, Jakarta Pusat 10710
email: ikp@fiskal.depkeu.go.id

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