The Development of Fiscal Social Accounting Matrix for Indonesia

Penulis: Hidayat Amir, Ferry Irawan, Djoni Hartono, Anda Nugroho (Tahun 2015)

The social accounting matrix (SAM), is a matrix to representthe transaction in a socio-economic system. It providesa comprehensive description of an economy with emphasis on social and distributive aspects. It describes the economic flows: income generation by production activities, income distribution,and the redistribution between economic agents. The SAM frameworkprovidesa useful toolfor various policy analysis such as income distribution analysis and incidence studies.BPS-Statistics Indonesia develops SAM as a complementary of Input-Output Table in every five year. However,the standard SAM only offera limited set of fiscal instruments.Fiscal policy instruments are important tools in policy analysis for the institution such as Fiscal Policy Agency (Badan Kebijakan Fiskal/BKF). BKF is a unit in the Indonesia Ministry of Finance that has the responsibility in the fiscal policy formulation.

The purpose of this study is to develop the FiscalSAM(FiSAM) for the year of 2008. The FiSAM featuring more detail fiscal instrument into SAM framework. It capturesthe government’s indirecttax revenue and government’s transfer. The government’s indirecttax is disaggregated into more detail categories:value added tax (VAT), sales taxes for luxury items, excises, import tax,property tax, stamp duty, and others (including local taxes). While the government’s transfer is disaggregated into: subsidy for poor students, food subsidy for the poor, conditional cash transfer, and other government’s transfer.With these extension, the FiSAM has more capability to capture a wide range analysis of fiscal policies more precisely. TheFiSAM may also serve as data for further development of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models.

Keywords: Fiscal, Social Accounting Matrix, BKF, Indonesia

Housing Shortage: Some Current Issues In Developing Countries

Penulis: Taufan Pamungkas Kurnianto, Nova Mardianti, Riza Azmi, and Agung Hidayat Purwanto (Tahun 2015)

This paper reviews the literature on the housing shortage in developing countries which is more prevalent than in developed countries. Housing shortage can be defined quantitatively or qualitatively. Quantitative approach stresses on the disequilibrium between supply and demand and another calculation which is visible and predictable, yet, qualitative approach puts more attention to the quality of housing whether it is an appropriate place as the shelter. The causes of housing shortage may come from both the demand side and the supply side. The supply side problems are: macroeconomics instability including rise in cost of construction materials, limited construction financing, market failure to provide housing for low income population, and government failure. The demand side problems are: mortgage financing, demographic growth, urbanization, limited secondary market and insufficient government program for low-income people. Linking theoretical framework and empirical data, filtering and hedonic housing model can be used to explain the housing shortage in which housing shortage occurs because there are some deviations in empirical data compared to the assumptions of those two models. Finally, policy implications are provided which indicate that many tasks needed to be taken by government and all stakeholders to address housing shortage.

Telah dipresentasikan dalam forum ilmiah "The 5th Indonesian Regional Science Association (IRSA) International Institute" pada tanggal 3-4 Agustus 2015 di Bali

The Impact Of The 2015 Free Visa Policy On Tourism Development In Indonesia

Penulis: Anda Nugroho, Rita Helbra Tenrini, and Hidayat Amir, Researcher, Fiscal Policy Office of Ministry of Finance, Indonesia (Tahun 2015)

Tourism is an important economic activity in Indonesia. Over the past years, tourism has become a fundamental contributor to the economic growth by generating millions of jobs and billions of dollars foreign exchange. Tourism contributes about 3.99 percent of the 2013 Indonesian GDP. In the same year, it has created more than 3 million jobs or equal to 2.7 percent of total employment. It also generates more than 10 billion USD inflow of foreign exchange to Indonesia. In order to achieve high growth in the tourism, the government has issued a series of policy, one of them is the policy of free visa for visitors from 30 countries, including China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of free visa policy to the Indonesian economy and government’s tax revenue. As a tool of analysis, this study modified the existing Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of INDOFISCAL that already has a range of fiscal features. The model is modified to improve the tourism sector aggregation in the model. It also modified to incorporate recursive dynamic feature. 

Overall, the free visa policy brings positive effects to the economy. In the response to the free visa policy in the scenario1, scenario 2, and scenario 3 the real GDP increases by 0.005 %, 0.017%, and 0.029 percent respectively. On the government side, this policy will lead to the increase in the indirect tax revenue. Scenario1, scenario 2, and scenario 3 has brought additional indirect tax revenue of USD 20.1 million, USD 71.5 million, USD 124.4 million respectively. The policy also creates more job in the tourism related sector and reduce poverty.

Keywords: Indonesia, tourism, free visa, Dynamic CGE


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