Analisis Dampak Insentif Fiskal Penetapan Harga Gas Bagi Industri Domestik Terhadap Perekonomian: Pendekatan Model CGE Dinamis

anda nugroho, Hidayat Amir

Abstract

Optimalisasi pemanfaatan gas bumi untuk kebutuhan domestik terkendala oleh mahalnya harga gas yang sampai di tangan industri pengguna gas domestik. Untuk mengatasi hal tersebut, pemerintah telah mengeluarkan insentif fiskal berupa Perpres nomor 40 tahun 2016 tentang Penetapan Harga Gas Bumi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalis dampak dari insentif fiskal tersebut terhadap perekonomian nasional. Hasil simulasi dengan model Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Fiskal Dinamis menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan penetapan harga gas bumi tertentu dapat meningkatkan kinerja perekonomian nasional. Hal tersebut ditandai dengan adanya peningkatan GDP pada kisaran 0,12% - 0,13% pada jangka menengah. Pada sisi industri, harga input gas yang lebih rendah akan memangkas biaya produksi sehingga membuat output industri menjadi lebih murah kompetitif. Industri yang mengalami peningkatan output antara lain industri besi baja, industri pupuk, industri keramik, industri kaca, industri barang-barang dari karet, industri pulp & kertas, dan industri makanan & minuman.

Expensive domestic gas price has constrained the natural gas utilization by the domestic industry. To deal with this situation, the government has issued fiscal incentives of Presidential Regulation number 40 of 2016 on the Natural Gas Price Regulation. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of the fiscal incentives to the economy. The Simulation result with Dynamic Fiscal CGE model shows that overall, the fiscal incentive will improve the performance of the national economy. The GDP increases in the range of 0.12% - 0.13% in the medium term. On the micro side, lower gas input prices will lower production costs, thus making industrial output cheaper and more competitive. The output of the following Industries are increasing: steel, fertilizer, ceramic, glass, rubber, pulp & paper, and food & beverage

Keywords

Harga Gas; Insentif Fiskal; Analisis Dampak; CGE Dinamis; Gas Price; fiscal Incentive; Impact Analysis; Dynamic CGE Model

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